What Happens to Ad Supply Dynamics on the Open Web as AI-Driven Media Consumption Rises

AI-driven behaviours — zero-click search, chatbots, social search — are fundamentally altering the open web. For publishers and programmatic advertisers, the implications are structural, not cyclical.

The Ad Supply Crunch

• Supply Reduction: Index Exchange reports that ad inventory has dropped by as much as 27% in certain categories.
• Economic Impact: As supply shrinks and demand for display and video remains steady, prices (eCPMs) are rising.
• Vulnerable Publishers: Those specialising in commoditised or highly transactional content are most at risk, as AI chatbots now fulfil these user needs more efficiently.
• Market Shift: Programmatic advertising, which historically relied on near-infinite supply, is now facing the reality of scarcity.

"Programmatic worked on the assumption of near-infinite supply. For the first time it might experience the concept of scarcity." — Mimmo Palmieri

Strategic Shifts in Performance Marketing

The era of keyword-chasing is over. The new focus is on intent, creative signals, and AI-driven optimisation.

Key Tactical Adjustments

• Creative-Level Optimisation: Algorithms (like Meta's Andromeda) now prioritise creative signals over audience targeting. Run 5-10 unique creatives per campaign. Refresh hooks and offers frequently — the first 3 seconds of video drive 80% of performance.
• Intent vs. Keywords: Campaigns must align with user intent (the "why" behind the search) rather than just specific phrases.
• AI-First Ecosystems: Google is deprecating Call-Only ads by February 2027, forcing migration to Responsive Search Ads with Call Assets.
• Data vs. Signals: Move from raw data points to actionable signals — events or scores — to inform AI decision-making.

Expert Recommendations

• Diversify Creatives: Use "emotional contrast" (e.g., funny vs. serious) to help algorithms identify different audience clusters.
• Prioritise First-Party Data: Ensure your own data is accurate and well-governed before feeding it into AI models.
• Automate Workflows: Use AI agents for trafficking, suppression, QA, and naming — freeing human time for strategy.
• Measure Impact, Not Hype: Track campaign launch speed, wasted impression avoidance, and incremental ROAS.

Platform Updates (September 2025)

• Google Ads: Auto-default conversion goals ending November 17th. "AI Max for Search" now global.
• Meta: "Vibes" (AI video creation) launched. New Reels and Threads ad options available.
• Pinterest: Growing as a diversification channel, offering lower CPMs and high purchase intent.

"The algorithm now learns faster from creative-level signals. Many accounts see 30-40% lower CPA after 2 weeks of stable learning." — MD Shifat Ahmed

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Navigating the shift from volume to value in programmatic? MIMMS advises publishers on ad stack strategy, first-party data architecture, and yield optimisation.